International rice trade and security stocks

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The surge in international rice (and other cereal) prices in 2007 and 2008 substantially raised the cost of cereal imports and shook the confidence in international markets of many national policymakers. This paper examines the recent experience with international rice reserves in Asia and re-examines the roles of national stocks and international trade in stabilizing domestic rice prices and availability in importing countries.
With the exception of China and India—the two largest rice producers in the world— few countries increased their national rice stocks since the 2008 international price spike. Efforts to promote international rice stocks have likewise been met with little success. Current international rice reserves, accounting for only about 1 percent of world rice stocks and about 3 percent of annual international rice trade (and about 0.25 percent of annual world rice consumption), are too small to make a difference for price stabilization in international markets.
Holding moderate levels of national stocks will likely remain the best option for providing an insurance against short-term disruptions in international rice trade and as a tool to calm domestic rice markets in times of heightened market uncertainty. Nonetheless, there are substantial gains from trade in most years for importing (and exporting) countries, and the evidence suggests that a blend of prudent public stock levels and management, together with openness to trade, is the most effective approach for minimizing disruptions to supply and enhancing stability of rice prices in the short run.

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